NWP Gazette, 1 (2) 3–8. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. 0000015911 00000 n 0000024810 00000 n For financially constrained agencies in southern Africa, developing simple CLIPER-type models (such as those in use in Mauritius) that incorporate regional and ENSO conditions available on the Internet may be more feasible. In mid-March 2019, a devastating cyclone tore through Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, killing hundreds of people so far and causing massive flooding. La Réunion uses the ECMWF IFS model and the French ARPEGE model, for which a version with approximately 40-km uniform resolution has been fitted to oceanic tropical regions. A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. The significant inflow of moisture from the subtropical SWIO and, to lesser extent, the tropical southeast Atlantic Ocean then combined with the trough in the westerlies south of Africa to promote the cloud band that occurred over southwestern Africa during 29 February–1 March. About 25% of the January–February–March (JFM) 2000 rainfall over southern Namibia resulted from this system; thus, it made a very significant contribution to the seasonal total. This warning remained in effect until the morning of 15 February. 1). At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). After crossing the 2000–2500-m-high Chimanimani Mountains in eastern Zimbabwe, ex-Eline weakened from moderate tropical storm to tropical depression status. During La Niña, TC tracks in the tropical south Indian Ocean are relatively spread out, with more occurring in the Mozambique Channel. Relatively strong midlevel easterlies (Figs. 3d,e) prior to landfall in Mozambique. Only South Africa has an operational radar network for severe weather monitoring (radars in Madagascar and Mozambique had stopped working some time before Eline). Cyclone Idai: Mozambique city of Beira hit by storm - BBC News J. Climatol, 11 , 877–888. Southern Africa is prone to devastating flood and drought episodes and pronounced climate variability on a range of scales, the coefficient of annual rainfall variation being greatest in southern Namibia. Heming, J. T., 1994: Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. The importance of this steering flow for enhancing the risk of SWIO TC making landfall on Mozambique is consistent with climatology and AGCM experiments (Vitart et al. Vitart, F., , Anderson D. , , and Stockdale T. , 2003: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. At 0400 UTC 29 February, the SAWB issued a heavy rain warning for central and southeast Namibia, timely given that this was the wettest day of the entire summer. Diab, R. D., , Preston-Whyte R. A. , , and Washington R. , 1991: Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. 2) and its associated low-level moisture convergence and convection (Figs. 2003). About 25–40 mm fell over southeastern Namibia on 1 March as the convective activity began to shift eastward with the westerly migration of the cloud band and the subsequent ridging of the next South Atlantic anticyclone behind the front. Phys, 51 , 101–115. .ajtmh_container div{ The track forecasts from La Réunion remained quite good during the 3 days that Eline was in the Mozambique Channel. Although not feasible for southern African operational agencies under current funding, the prototype ECMWF coupled model experiments (Vitart et al. The associated convection over southern Namibia on 29 February produced the greatest daily falls of the entire summer (40–60 mm at several stations). 5). Convection over Namibia was weaker than a day or so previously as a result of subsidence from the outflow ahead of Eline. In fact, over 500 mm fell at some stations during 22–25 February. Flood producing weather systems: Tropical cyclones. 1, 2a). Stammer, D., and Coauthors, 2003: Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. After Eline began restrengthening and turned more to th… During 21–25 February, the low-level flux over southern Africa was dominated by the circulation associated with ex-Eline (Fig. Using the definition of forecast skill as (CLIPER DPE − UKMO DPE)/CLIPER DPE × 100%, where DPE is the direct positional error between the model and observed center, the skill scores were 23%, 36%, and 51% for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts. 0000003750 00000 n Despite advice from forecasters, it appears that an official storm warning was not issued by the Zimbabwean government until after ex-Eline had already impacted the eastern regions of the country. This scenario was adjusted in three subsequent forecasts issued between 0000 and 1200 UTC 17 February, which correctly predicted a slight intensification and more northwestward track to the system. 9a, and these SSTs were above average for both January and February (Figs. 0000000947 00000 n 9b,c) where the composite displays cool anomalies. Atmos. RESCUE OPERATION: Villagers in Mataga, Mberengwa, rescue the driver of a Toyota Surf who was attempting to cross a flooded Matindingu River on Friday. Positive anomalies are shaded. The 0200 and 0400 UTC 25 February bulletins repeated these warnings and noted that although the storm was weakening over Botswana and rainfall over northeastern South Africa should moderate, heavy rains should still be expected that day. Contour interval 1°C with SST above 28°C shaded. Prog. At 200 hPa (not shown), positive anomalies and divergence existed over the eastern/central tropical south Indian Ocean during the 2 weeks before Eline reached 90°E on 8 February. In the 1966/67 season, Cyclone Daphne hit southern Mozambique and its https://www.chronicle.co.zw/cyclone-to-hit-southern-zimbabwe Thus, the evolution of ex-TC Eline was very unusual. 0000020393 00000 n The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in The most affected areas are Bikita, Chimanimani, Chipinge, Chiredzi, Gutu, Buhera and Zaka. 10) were also present in the tropical (subtropical and midlatitude) south Indian Ocean. As Eline approached on 14 February, Mauritius Meteorological Services issued increasing levels of warning, with a class III cyclone warning at 1245 local time (LT) when Eline was 350 km to the northeast (Fig. Hence, Eline regained tropical cyclone status on 21 February when it was located about 80% of the way across the channel (Fig. 7) stretching northwest–southeast across southern Africa. Compared to composite maps of 10 strong La Niña events over the past century (Reason et al. The large-scale influences on the highly unusual track of Eline are considered in section 3, including that of SWIO sea surface temperature (SST) via Reynolds optimally interpolated (OI) (Reynolds and Smith 1994) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (Kummerow et al. During the 3 days following Eline's landfall on 22 February, stations near the interior escarpment of northeastern South Africa received rainfall of 400–550 mm (about 3 times the February mean), whereas the Eta model totals for this time were about 100–150 mm. Partial funding from the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully acknowledged. In Mozambique, an … This lack of sounding data causes significant difficulties for model verification, reliable data assimilation into operational models like Eta, and forecast accuracy in the region. Jury, M. R., , and Pathack B. , 1991: A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. A study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met.. 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique ( Fig with strong winds triggered. 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